Summary:
This paper sets up two models from microcosmic and macroscopic aspects, respectively, to approximate the expected rate of change in the number of HIV/AIDS infections. Both models are applied to all the three scenarios, each with different assumptions about the exterior interventions; comparison and contradistinction have been made through the analysis of conclusions of both models.
- The HIV/AIDS Model based on Social Networking (MSN): From a microcosmic point of view, grounded on the theory of the Social Networking and Finite Automata, the model dynamically simulates the human contact, and consequently the spread of HIV/AIDS. By traversing the social network per unit time so as to represent the human activities, we obtain the tendency of virus dissemination. In addition, the effects of other key elements are considered, such as financial factor, gender difference, etc.
- The Refined HIV/AIDS Transmission Model (RTM): From a macroscopic point of view, the model divides the spread of HIV/AIDS into five stages, and a system of differential equations are set up to describe the relationships among these stages. Moreover, some refinements are integrated to the transmission model, taking into account the influences of multiple approaches of infection, different age stages, and the birth & death rate of a given population, to improve the accuracy of model forecast.
Our findings demonstrate that China will overpass South Africa and have the largest HIV positive population in near future. If not effectively controlled by drug or vaccine, by 2050, China’s HIV positive population will go beyond 94 million and South Africa over 31 million, which covers 55.4% of its total population. However, by 2050 HIV/AIDS can be eliminated in those developed country with the help of medical treatment and vaccine inoculation. UN’s financial resource allocation should mainly focus on ARV provision in the short term and HIV vaccine in the long term.
Hornor:
Meritorious Winner of Interdisciplinary Contest In Modeling 2006
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